Multi-sensor phenotyping of yield and yield stability for genotype selection in durum wheat

Developing climate-resilient wheat varieties requires combining high yield with stability across diverse environments, especially under increasingly variable precipitation and rising temperatures. This study evaluated 64 post-Green Revolution durum wheat cultivars under irrigated and rainfed conditions at two contrasting Mediterranean sites in Spain. A classification framework was developed to support genotype selection based on yield and yield stability, estimated using linear mixed models and yield slopes across environments. Genotypes were classified by interquartile thresholds, and those showing either low yield or low stability were considered undesirable for selection. High-throughput phenotyping was conducted throughout the season using ground-sensor Red-Green-Blue (RGB) and multispectral (MS) vegetation indices (VIs), along with UAV-derived RGB, MS, and thermal-infrared (TIR) data. VIs and TIR at anthesis and grain filling, and their differences (senescence proxies), were used to train Random Forests for yield and stability estimation including sequential feature selection. Environmental covariates (water input, reference evapotranspiration) were integrated in yield models, with strong outcomes (R² > 0.74; MAPE <23.6%). Stability predictions were based on VI stability and, though moderate (R² up to 0.56; MAPE <17.75%), outperformed previous studies. Selected features were used to evaluate seasonal reflectance phenotypes: “keep” genotypes (intermediate/high yield or/and stability) exhibited early-vigor but lower green retention by the end of grain filling, while “discard” genotypes (low yield or/and stability) showed reduced early vigor and “stay-green” behavior. This study highlights early-vigor and earlier senescence over “stay-green” for wheat selection, offering a cost-effective approach shifting the breeding focus from yield maximization to joint yield-stability evaluation, promoting sustainability.