Reliability analysis of carbon fiber rod-reinforced umbilical cable under tension using an improved sampling method

The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power, chemical agents, control signals et al., and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high. However, as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units, the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency. In this paper, the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed. The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load, then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method (FEM). Based on the mechanical analytical model, the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method (RSM) and Monte Carlo method. During the calculation process, a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function (RSF) is proposed in this paper, which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve, and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33% comparing with traditional method.