Spatiotemporal dynamics and food security implications of cropland abandonment in China

Cropland abandonment substantially affects food security and agricultural sustainability, yet comprehensive analyses of its dynamics in rapidly developing regions remain limited. This study examines the spatiotemporal patterns, labor migration influences, and food security implications of cropland abandonment in China from 1992 to 2022. The results show that abandonment progressed through four phases: slow growth, rapid increase, high-level fluctuation peaking at 3.98% in 2016, and gradual decline. The research identified three primary abandonment patterns - single long-term (≥10 years), progressive degradation, and occasional (3–9 years) - with distinct spatial distributions. Long-term abandonment concentrates in the marginal agricultural areas of southwestern mountainous regions, while occasional abandonment predominates in the more economically developed eastern coastal areas, and progressive degradation patterns appear in transitional zones between plains and mountains. Labor migration influenced abandonment non-linearly with distinct regional thresholds. Short-distance (within-county) migration reduced abandonment rates, while medium-distance (within-province) migration significantly increased them. Although 57.50% of abandonment occurred on low-suitability land, 42.50% affected high-suitability cropland, resulting in peak potential grain losses of 15.0 and 8.8 million tonnes for low and high suitability land respectively in 2010. These findings support regionally differentiated land management strategies that integrate land suitability assessments, labor migration patterns, and local socioeconomic conditions to ensure agricultural sustainability.