Bark beetle-induced salvage logging cycle is caused by weather patterns linked to the NAO and solar cycle in Central Europe

Central Europe has faced major disasters causing fluctuations in salvage logging. These events, driven by natural or human factors, have damaged forest. Climate change is a key factor that cyclically affects these patterns. These forest disasters cause billions in financial losses due to lower wood prices and quality, but their regular cycles are poorly understood. The objective of this study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of salvage logging in Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia. Analyses indicate an upward trend in bark beetle-induced logging over the past five decades, with a notable surge in salvage logging in recent years. Cyclical fluctuations linked to solar activity represented by total solar irradiance (TSI) have been observed across the data. Higher TSI reduces beetle-induced logging to 3%–5%, while lower TSI increases it to 17%–24% near the solar minimum. An increase to higher seasonal temperature and a decrease to low precipitation one year before leads to a peak in beetle-induced logging, caused by drought. Seasonal precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have less impact, but higher precipitation is seen one year after the peak in bark-beetle logging. Droughts regularly occur one year before calamity peaks, confirmed by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Harvests caused by wind and snow events have shorter cycles compared to the longer and more regular cycles of bark beetle-induced harvest. Common wavelet power spectrum analysis revealed a consistent 9- to 12-year cycle across all data sets. Solar cycle significantly impacts forest management through the NAO, precipitation, and temperature. The study suggests the potential for utilizing cyclical relationships in calamity prediction and more effective forest management in Central Europe.