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Forest Ecosystems 2022, 9(1): 100002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100002
Research Article | Open Access | Issue | Published: 25 February 2022

No treeline shift despite climate change over the last 70 years

Show Author's Information Mirela Beloiua,1( ),  Dimitris Poursanidisb,1( ),  Antonis Tsakirakisc,  Nektarios Chrysoulakisb,  Samuel Hoffmanna,  Petros Lymberakisc,d,  Antonis Barniasc,  David Kienlea,  Carl Beierkuhnleina,e,f
Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
Remote Sensing Lab, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, 100 N. Plastira Str., Vassilika Vouton, Heraklion, 70013, Greece
Samaria National Park, Management Body, Old National Road Chanion-Kissamou, Agioi Apostoloi, Chania, Crete, Greece
Natural History Museum of Crete, University of Crete, Knossou Av., 71409, Irakleio, Crete, Greece
GIB Department of Geography, University of Bayreuth, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
BayCEER Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, University of Bayreuth, 95448, Bayreuth, Germany

1 Considered dual first authors.

Keywords:
Temperature, Precipitation, Climate change, Protected area, Forest dynamics, Mediterranean region, Aerial imagery, Continental island, High mountains
Cite this article:
Beloiu M, Poursanidis D, Tsakirakis A, et al. No treeline shift despite climate change over the last 70 years. Forest Ecosystems, 2022, 9(1): 100002. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fecs.2022.100002
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Abstract Full text About this article
Background

The recent rise in temperature and shifting precipitation regimes threaten ecosystems around the globe to different degrees. Treelines are expected to respond to climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, but it is unclear whether they can track temperature changes. Here, we integrated high-resolution aerial imagery with local climatic and topographic characteristics to study the treeline dynamic from 1945 to 2015 on the semi-arid Mediterranean island of Crete, Greece.

Results

During the study period, the mean annual temperature at the treeline increased by 0.81 ​℃, while the average precipitation decreased by 170 ​mm. The treeline is characterized by a diffuse form, with trees growing on steep limestone slopes (>50°) and shallow soils. Moreover, the treeline elevation decreases with increasing distance from the coast and with aspect (south ​> ​north). Yet, we found no shift in the treeline over the past 70 years, despite an increase in temperature in all four study sites. However, the treeline elevation correlated strongly with topographic exposure to wind (R2 ​= ​0.74, p ​< ​0.001). Therefore, the temporal lag in treeline response to warming could be explained by a combination of topographic and microclimatic factors, such as the absence of a shelter effect and a decrease in moisture.

Conclusion

Although there was no treeline shift over the last 70 years, climate change has already started shifting the treeline altitudinal optimum. Consequently, the lack of climate-mediated migration at the treeline should raise concerns about the threats posed by warming, such as drought damages, and wildfire, especially in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, conservation management should discuss options and needs to support adaptive management.


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Abstract
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About this article

No treeline shift despite climate change over the last 70 years

Show Author's information Mirela Beloiua,1( ), Dimitris Poursanidisb,1( ), Antonis Tsakirakisc, Nektarios Chrysoulakisb, Samuel Hoffmanna, Petros Lymberakisc,d, Antonis Barniasc, David Kienlea, Carl Beierkuhnleina,e,f
Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 30, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
Remote Sensing Lab, Institute of Applied and Computational Mathematics, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, 100 N. Plastira Str., Vassilika Vouton, Heraklion, 70013, Greece
Samaria National Park, Management Body, Old National Road Chanion-Kissamou, Agioi Apostoloi, Chania, Crete, Greece
Natural History Museum of Crete, University of Crete, Knossou Av., 71409, Irakleio, Crete, Greece
GIB Department of Geography, University of Bayreuth, 95447, Bayreuth, Germany
BayCEER Bayreuth Center of Ecology and Environmental Research, University of Bayreuth, 95448, Bayreuth, Germany

1 Considered dual first authors.

Abstract

Background

The recent rise in temperature and shifting precipitation regimes threaten ecosystems around the globe to different degrees. Treelines are expected to respond to climate warming by shifting to higher elevations, but it is unclear whether they can track temperature changes. Here, we integrated high-resolution aerial imagery with local climatic and topographic characteristics to study the treeline dynamic from 1945 to 2015 on the semi-arid Mediterranean island of Crete, Greece.

Results

During the study period, the mean annual temperature at the treeline increased by 0.81 ​℃, while the average precipitation decreased by 170 ​mm. The treeline is characterized by a diffuse form, with trees growing on steep limestone slopes (>50°) and shallow soils. Moreover, the treeline elevation decreases with increasing distance from the coast and with aspect (south ​> ​north). Yet, we found no shift in the treeline over the past 70 years, despite an increase in temperature in all four study sites. However, the treeline elevation correlated strongly with topographic exposure to wind (R2 ​= ​0.74, p ​< ​0.001). Therefore, the temporal lag in treeline response to warming could be explained by a combination of topographic and microclimatic factors, such as the absence of a shelter effect and a decrease in moisture.

Conclusion

Although there was no treeline shift over the last 70 years, climate change has already started shifting the treeline altitudinal optimum. Consequently, the lack of climate-mediated migration at the treeline should raise concerns about the threats posed by warming, such as drought damages, and wildfire, especially in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, conservation management should discuss options and needs to support adaptive management.

Keywords: Temperature, Precipitation, Climate change, Protected area, Forest dynamics, Mediterranean region, Aerial imagery, Continental island, High mountains

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Published: 25 February 2022
Issue date: February 2022

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© 2022 Beijing Forestry University.

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge support from the ECOPOTENTIAL project-EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant agreement no. 641762.

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This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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