Impacts of China’s natural forest protection project on habitat distribution of key protected birds in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP), initiated by the Chinese government in 2000, is a crucial ecological construction project that has played a significant role in forest restoration in China. Forests in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) serve as important habitats for many rare and endemic birds. Understanding the conservation efficiency of NFPP implementation on these birds holds significant practical significance. In this study, we utilized land use change matrices to analyze the forest changes in the QTP before and after NFPP implementation, predicted the potential spatial distribution of 16 nationally protected birds using Species Distribution Models (SDMs), and compared the impacts of this project on bird habitats under different carbon emission scenarios. Mann-Whitney U tests were employed to analyze the adaptation of different birds to forest changes during NFPP implementation. Our results showed that NFPP protected 172,398 km² of primary forests and added 6379 km² of secondary forests in our study area. The potential spatial distribution and sympatric species richness of the 16 protected birds slightly increased after NFPP implementation under different climate change scenarios, and NFPP implementation contributed to improving the potential spatial distribution of birds. Compared to newly established secondary forests, protected primary forests exhibited enhanced conservation for forest birds (Z-value > 0 for six bird species, P < 0.1), while being less suitable for non-forest birds (significantly unsuitable for three non-forest bird species, Z-value < 0, P < 0.05; non-significantly unsuitable for four non-forest bird species, Z-value < 0, P > 0.1). This indicates that the protection of primary forests during NFPP implementation benefits forest bird conservation while the addition of secondary forests is beneficial to non-forest birds. To enhance the role of NFPP in avian conservation in the QTP, it is suggested to increase the landscape heterogeneity of forest, particularly in newly established secondary forests.