Distribution, trends, and drivers of snow avalanche susceptibility on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau from 2003 to 2022

The lack of clarity regarding the trends in avalanche susceptibility over recent decades highlights a significant research gap. This pressing scientific challenge has major implications for risk management and infrastructure resilience. In this study, we identified and established an avalanche catalog database by combining remote-sensing interpretation with field validation. Then, we developed an Intelligent Weighted Synergy Optimization Model (IWSOM), which improved predictive accuracy by incorporating thresholds for snow cover days and slope. Utilizing this model, we quantified the evolution of avalanche susceptibility on the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau (QTP) from 2003 to 2022. The results showed a general decline in avalanche susceptibility from 2003 to 2022, with approximately 26.5% of the region experiencing a general reduction, mainly in the Nyainqentanglha Range and the Hengduan Mountains. We further found that high-susceptibility zones have been shifting to higher altitudes, while mid-to low-susceptibility zones have been migrating downward. Moreover, avalanche susceptibility has exhibited spatial interdependence, with its sensitivity progressively weakening from the monsoon zone to the westerly zone. The monsoon region has emerged as the primary driver of the reduced avalanche susceptibility in the QTP. These results hold significant theoretical and practical importance for understanding the factors controlling avalanche events as well as for the scientific prevention and management of avalanche disasters.