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A stochastic uncertain tribodynamic model is established for a spur gear pair for the first time. The stochastic uncertainty of pinion rotation speed propagated to lubrication performance is investigated. The probability density function of the minimum lubricant film thickness hmin evolves over time periodically at interval of an engagement process. Correspondence between abrupt increase in meshing force and amplification of hmin uncertainty is found. Robust and reliable lubrication performance can be achieved by suppressing the hmin uncertainty and decreasing the lubrication failure probability. This can be done by increasing lubricant viscosity, and decreasing input torque and uncertainty level of input rotation speed. This work lays a solid foundation for robust and reliability based optimization for tribodynamic gear system.
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