70 Years of Development in China’s Operational Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the core technology for weather forecast and disaster prevention and mitigation. The research and operational applications of NWP have always been highly valued in China, and have achieved great progress with an appreciable international influence in the theories, algorithms, and operational system developments. This paper first summarizes the scientific and technological evolution of NWP in China, and then focuses on the current status and recent updates of the two homemade global NWP systems: GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) and YHGSM (YinHe Global Spectral Model). (1) GRAPES possesses both deterministic and ensemble forecast systems, with global (regional) model versions running on 12–50-km (3–10-km) resolutions. Significant improvements have been made on its dynamic core, four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation, satellite and radar data assimilation, ensemble forecast, and cloud microphysics schemes, and so on. It is capable to perform subseasonal to seasonal forecast and has incorporated an atmospheric chemistry model, typhoon numerical forecast model, and ocean wave model. (2) YHGSM continues to follow the development route of spectral models, featured prominently with a dry-mass conserved spectral dynamical core, ensemble 4D-Var assimilation, coupled ocean–land–atmosphere ensemble forecast, and the medium-term and monthly-extended global high-resolution forecast as the baseline. These NWP systems autonomouly developed by the China Meteorological Administration and the national defense insitution benefit from long-term adherence to the national science and technology development strategies and close research to operation practices.