TY  - JOUR
AU  - Wang, Qinyu
AU  - Zeng, Chen
AU  - Zhou, Zhanhang
AU  - Gao, Shunqian
AU  - Ye, Fangxia
AU  - Deng, Xiao
PY  - 2026
TI  - Assessment and zoning governance of cultivated land use resilience in the urban-rural fringe of the Wuhan Metropolitan Area
JO  - Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
SN  - 1002-6819
SP  - 342
EP  - 353
VL  - 42
IS  - 15
AB  - Rapid urbanization has intensified land-use competition, landscape fragmentation, and ecological pressure in urban-rural fringe areas. Accurately identifying the spatiotemporal differentiation, driving mechanisms, and governance priorities of cultivated land use resilience is therefore essential for improving the effectiveness of cultivated land protection and differentiated zoning governance. This study investigated the urban-rural fringe of the Wuhan Metropolitan Area. The fringe was delineated by clustering nighttime-light intensity and its spatial fluctuation, and 4,775 valid grids of 1 km × 1 km were established as the basic evaluation units. A cultivated land use resilience evaluation framework was constructed from the three dimensions of resistance, adaptability, and recovery. Resistance was characterized by root-zone soil moisture stability, crop evapotranspiration stability, and cultivated land slope; adaptability reflected landscape functional connectivity, market accessibility, construction-land pressure, and production-use stability; and recovery characterized the response to an extreme drought event. Entropy weighting was applied to a pooled panel comprising both assessment years to ensure the comparability of resilience scores between 2012 and 2022. Local indicators of spatial association were used to identify local clusters and spatial outliers, geographically weighted regression (GWR) was employed to examine spatially varying associations between resilience and its driving factors, and fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was conducted to identify county-level configurations associated with high resilience. The results showed that moderate or higher resilience levels predominated in both assessment years. The overall level remained essentially stable, while the composition and spatial distribution of resilience levels and local clustering patterns changed, indicating evident spatial differentiation. Global Moran’s I decreased slightly from 0.243 to 0.241, indicating significant positive spatial autocorrelation in both years and a slight weakening of overall clustering. Low-low clusters expanded modestly around the main urban area and some urban expansion fronts, whereas high-high clusters contracted slightly toward relatively contiguous cultivated land in outer areas. The temporal change in resilience was therefore mainly reflected in localized adjustments to the spatial pattern. The effects of the driving factors varied markedly across space. Compared with the global ordinary least squares model, the GWR model increased the adjusted coefficient of determination from 0.444 to 0.625 and reduced the corrected Akaike information criterion from 10 755.08 to 9 488.99. Population density and point-of-interest density showed stronger negative local associations with resilience in inner-fringe areas, urban expansion fronts, and areas surrounding some secondary urban centers. These associations may be related to concentrated construction demand, intensified land-use competition, and greater fragmentation of cultivated land. In outer-suburban and hilly agricultural areas, precipitation and groundwater depth were more closely associated with resilience, indicating the greater importance of water conditions where direct urban pressure was relatively weak. Distance to surface water had a significant negative coefficient in the global model but showed both positive and negative local coefficients and seldom emerged as the locally dominant factor. This indicator reflected proximity to potential surface-water sources rather than actual field-level irrigation capacity, which was also conditioned by plot configuration, irrigation and drainage facilities, and local water-use organization. No single antecedent condition was necessary for high resilience. Eight effective configurations were identified, with an overall solution consistency of 0.915 and coverage of 0.702. According to their dominant condition combinations and regional contexts, these configurations were summarized into four modes: water-soil resource endowment, suburban ecological mosaic, social adaptation and feedback, and hilly rain-fed conservation. These modes indicated that high resilience could be supported by different combinations of resource endowment, urban location, development pressure, and social adaptability. At the grid scale, zoning types were determined according to resilience level, the local cluster type identified by LISA, and the locally dominant factor identified by GWR. The study area was accordingly divided into core protection, pressure regulation, endowment enhancement, and risk warning zones. The county-level high-resilience configurations identified by fsQCA were subsequently used as contextual references for selecting governance measures. The corresponding priorities were to maintain contiguous high-resilience cultivated land, regulate construction encroachment and restore fragmented landscapes, improve water conservation and irrigation conditions according to local natural constraints, and strengthen dynamic monitoring in transitional areas. The results demonstrate that cultivated land use resilience in the urban-rural fringe of the Wuhan Metropolitan Area remained essentially stable overall but exhibited evident spatial differentiation, and that high resilience could be achieved through multiple configurational pathways. Differentiated zoning governance should therefore account for regional resilience status, locally dominant factors, and the conditions associated with high resilience. These findings can provide a reference for zoning-based cultivated land protection and resilience enhancement in rapidly urbanizing urban-rural fringe areas.
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202601191
DO  - 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202601191