@article{Yue2026, 
author = {Zongmin Yue and Yi Dong and Hui Cao},
title = {Modeling and optimal control of ADE-prone dual-strain influenza: balancing costs, risks, and interventions},
year = {2026},
journal = {Electronic Research Archive},
volume = {34},
number = {7},
pages = {4410-4447},
keywords = {antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), dual-strain influenza model, basic reproduction number, stability, optimal control},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.3934/era.2026195},
doi = {10.3934/era.2026195},
abstract = {Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) is a major safety challenge in multiserotype disease control, involving complex trade-offs among infection burden, cost, and vaccine safety. This study develops a two-strain influenza model that integrates both host immunity (endogenous) and viral cross-reactivity (exogenous) as dual mechanisms underlying ADE. Threshold analysis shows that exogenous ADE lowers transmission thresholds (                     R        ~                    1      ,                      R        ~                    A      ), promoting strain coexistence, whereas endogenous ADE reverses this trend. We further establish a multiobjective optimal control framework to balance outbreak control, ADE risk, and intervention costs. The resulting strategy combines early targeted measures with sustained behavioral precautions (e.g., 51–79% mask-wearing compliance), effectively reducing the peak infection rate. Crucially, we identify an optimal risk-aversion level (   α  ≈  2), which halves the ADE risk with only a 2.3% increase in infections and minimal extra cost—demonstrating a clear Pareto-optimal trade-off. This quantitative framework can be applied to other contexts, such as multivalent vaccine design for dengue fever, and provides a decision-making basis for risk-benefit assessment of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases.}
}