@article{GAN2026, 
author = {Tao GAN and Tariq ALI and Ya-Wen LIU and Wei XIE and Qin-Yu DENG and Qiang JI},
title = {Assessing climate and transition risks to China’s agriculture under 1.5 and 2.0 ℃ global warming scenarios},
year = {2026},
journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
volume = {17},
number = {2},
pages = {411-420},
keywords = {Agricultural low-carbon transition, Climate risks, Transition risks, Damage function},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.011},
doi = {10.1016/j.accre.2025.12.011},
abstract = {China’s agriculture faces dual risks from climate change and the transition to low-carbon agriculture, both of which pose substantial threats to food security and farmers' incomes. Understanding the trade-offs between these risks is essential to meeting climate goals and advancing sustainable agricultural development. This study establishes a comprehensive framework that integrates meta-analysis-derived parameters into the GTAP-E model to quantify the dual risks to China’s agriculture under the 1.5 and 2 ℃ scenarios. The results indicate that under the 2 ℃ scenario, weaker mitigation efforts lead to higher climate risks, with maize production, prices, consumption, and self-sufficiency changing by about 1.5 times as much as under the 1.5 ℃ case. Conversely, the 1.5 ℃ scenario, while more effective in reducing climate risks, incurs greater transition risks—livestock output declines and prices rise nearly twice as much as that in the 2 ℃ scenario. The findings suggest that achieving climate targets requires a balanced transition strategy that strengthens agricultural resilience and ensures food security.}
}