@article{JIN2026, 
author = {Lei JIN and Yi-Xiong LU and Wei HUA and Jun-Ting ZHONG and Xiao-Ye ZHANG and Zhi-Li WANG and Xiao-Ge XIN and Jie ZHANG and Tong-Wen WU and De-Ying WANG and Da ZHANG and Tian-Peng WANG},
title = {Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 ℃ climate futures},
year = {2026},
journal = {Advances in Climate Change Research},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {1-11},
keywords = {Climate change, Greenhouse gases, Earth system model, Precipitation, Global warming, Aerosol mitigation},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008},
doi = {10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008},
abstract = {Achieving the 2 ℃ climate target requires the coordination of strategies for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants mitigation, yet their complex interactions remain insufficiently explored. BCC-ESM1 Earth system model is employed to compare global climate responses under the novel SSP2-com scenario, in which both GHGs and aerosols undergo reduction, with that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Moreover, the relative contributions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and black carbon (BC) to future temperature increases are analyzed. Results reveal that compared with the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the SSP2-com scenario can stabilize the end-21st-century temperature rise well below 2 ℃, primarily driven by the reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. A mid-term warming rebound between 2061 and 2080 is observed due to reduced aerosol cooling. SO2 reductions result in a weakening aerosol-induced radiative forcing, driving regional warming asymmetries―particularly in northern high latitudes (up to +1.5 ℃ in winter). Compared to CO2-only mitigation, experiments involving SO2 reductions also exhibit stronger global precipitation increases, suggesting an acceleration of the hydrological cycle under lower aerosol loading. Energy budget analysis further indicates that SO2 mitigation results in an increase in net shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere by approximately 0.23 W/m2 during the mid-term (2061―2080), and consequently leads to an accumulated surface energy gain of about 0.15 W/m2. These findings highlight a key trade-off: aerosol mitigation may induce mid-term warming, but remains essential for achieving air quality and climate goals. This work underscores the necessity of balancing mid-term climate―air quality trade-offs with long-term decarbonization, offering actionable insights for policymakers to design integrated pathways align with the Paris Agreement.}
}