@article{REN2026, 
author = {Xuanming REN and Xinmin TANG and Yusheng LIU and Qixing LU},
title = {Target trajectory tracking and extrapolation based on INT-VSMM algorithm},
year = {2026},
journal = {Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics},
volume = {52},
number = {1},
pages = {203-213},
keywords = {variable structure multiple model, flight intention, digraph switching, maneuvering target tracking, trajectory extrapolation},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0724},
doi = {10.13700/j.bh.1001-5965.2023.0724},
abstract = {In order to address the issue of the traditional variable structure multiple model (VSMM) algorithm's lengthy computation time and difficulty meeting real-time constraints, we developed the intent variable structure multiple model (INT-VSMM) algorithm. This algorithm uses the target state and flight intent data collected by automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) as the model’s priori data, combining it with the VSMM theoretical framework. The motion pattern of the target in the flight phase of the flight path is decomposed, and a complete set of motion models is established. According to the principle of directed graph switching, a model set switching method is designed, which is mainly based on "hard" switching and supplemented by "soft" switching. The INT-VSMM algorithm is used to track the trajectory of the target aircraft, and short-term trajectory extrapolation is performed based on the target state estimation. According to the simulation results, the INT-VSMM algorithm outperforms the compared current approaches in terms of target tracking performance and computing time. Additionally, the extrapolated trajectory has a lower short-term inaccuracy, which can satisfy conflict detection requirements.}
}