@article{CHEN2025, 
author = {Jing CHEN and Yuejian ZHU and Wansuo DUAN and Xiefei ZHI and Jinzhong MIN and Xiaoli LI and Guo DENG and Huiling YUAN and Jie FENG and Jun DU and Qiaoping LI and Jiandong GONG and Xueshun SHEN and Mu MU},
title = {A Review on Development, Challenges, and Future Perspectives of Ensemble Forecast},
year = {2025},
journal = {Journal of Meteorological Research},
volume = {39},
number = {3},
pages = {534-558},
keywords = {ensemble forecast, method, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) ensemble forecast, review},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.1007/s13351-025-4909-4},
doi = {10.1007/s13351-025-4909-4},
abstract = {This paper reviews the development of ensemble weather forecast and the primary techniques employed in the main ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) designed by China and other countries. Here, the emphasis is placed on the advancements in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) global and regional ensemble prediction systems (i.e., CMA-GEPS and CMA-REPS), with particular attention to operational technologies such as initial and model perturbation methods and the applications of ensemble forecast. Through comparative verification with EPSs from other leading international numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers, CMA’s EPSs demonstrate forecast skills comparable to its global counterparts. As EPSs progress to convective scales and coupled systems between sea, land, air, and ice, the paper addresses some key challenges in ensemble forecast technologies across the aspects of operation, science, integration of artificial intelligence (AI), merging of weather and climate models, and challenging user requirements. Finally, a summary of conclusions and future perspectives on ensemble forecast are provided.}
}