@article{HU2023, 
author = {Yiming HU and Chenxi YANG and Zhongmin LIANG and Chao TANG and Yu CHEN and Jukun GUO},
title = {Analysis of regional composition of design flood under non-stationary conditions},
year = {2023},
journal = {Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences)},
volume = {51},
number = {3},
pages = {19-24},
keywords = {non-stationarity, regional composition of design flood, Copula function, conditional expectation combination method, equivalent reliability method},
url = {https://www.sciopen.com/article/10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2023.03.003},
doi = {10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2023.03.003},
abstract = {To address the problem of calculating the combined design value of different regional flood under non-stationary conditions, this paper firstly constructs a varying-parameter Copula model based on the Copula function, which can consider the non-stationarity of the marginal distribution of different flood variables and the non-stationarity of their dependence structure. The non-stationary evolution characteristics of the joint distribution of floods in different regions over time are analyzed. Based on the equal reliability method and the conditional expectation combination method, a method for analyzing the regional composition of non-stationary design floods under changing environments is proposed, which can be used to calculate the design value combinations of different regional floods corresponding to a specified return period under non-stationary conditions. Based on the annual maximum 15-day flood volume (AM15FV) series at Cuntan and Yichang stations, the proposed method is used to analyze the change on design flood combinations among the Cuntan, Yichang and Cuntan-Yichang section. The results show that the AM15FV series at Cuntan and Yichang stations exhibits a decreasing trend, and their joint distribution of floods at Cuntan and Yichang stations varies with time. The design values of floods at Yichang station, Cuntan station and Cuntan-Yichang section corresponding to the specified return period tend to decrease with increasing design lifetime.}
}