TY - JOUR AU - DAN, Li AU - HE, Li AU - DIAO, Shangpeng AU - XING, Yage AU - XU, Qinglian AU - LIU, Hong AU - LÜ, Xingyu AU - YE, Yangyang AU - WUREMO, Luoguo PY - 2025 TI - Kinetic Modeling for Shelf-Life Prediction of Dry Salted Duck Based on Total Volatile Basic Nitrogen JO - Food Science SN - 1002-6630 SP - 302 EP - 309 VL - 46 IS - 11 AB - A model for predicting the shelf-life of Daliangshan hand-torn duck at different storage temperatures was established. Changes in the sensory score, total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), peroxide value (POV), thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value, and a* value of dry salted duck stored at 25, 30 or 37 ℃ were analyzed and the correlation among them was examined. Chemical reaction kinetic equations and the Arrhenius equation were used to develop a shelf-life prediction model for hand-torn dried duck. The results showed that the sensory score, a*, water activity (aw) and pH decreased with storage time, irrespective of storage temperature, while the opposite trend was observed for the TVB-N, POV and TBA value. The changing trend was 37 ℃ > 30 ℃ > 25 ℃. Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the sensory attributes and the physicochemical indexes showed TVB-N to be an effective quality index to predict the shelf-life of hand-torn dried duck. According to the proposed prediction model, the estimated shelf-life of dry salted duck was 305, 255 and 204 d at 25, 30 and 37 ℃, respectively. Within the first 100 days of storage, the relative deviation between the predicted value and the measured value was less than 10%, demonstrating high accuracy and reliability of the model. In conclusion, this model could allow quick and reliable prediction of the shelf-life of dry salted duck. UR - https://doi.org/10.7506/spkx1002-6630-20241209-062 DO - 10.7506/spkx1002-6630-20241209-062