Paradigm shift and prospects of China's earthquake emergency management policies: Analysis of historical institutionalism

China's earthquake emergency management policies have experienced a total of four types of paradigms: the paradigm focusing on disaster relief from 1949−1966, the paradigm focusing on earthquake prevention from 1966−1989, the paradigm focusing on earthquake mitigation from 1989−2016, and the paradigm integrating disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief from 2016 to present. Path dependence can be found in China’s earthquake emergency management policies, which have accumulated to implement comprehensive disaster mitigation based on a pure focus on disaster relief. In addition, earthquake emergency management policies also have a change logic in which subjects are increasingly diversified, policy tools are continuously developed and influenced by the economic system, and policy paradigm changes are influenced by the international environment, national strategies, and emergencies. In the future, earthquake emergency management policies should start from organizational change, digital change and rule of law construction to promote the modernization of China's earthquake emergency governance system and capacity.