Journal Home > Volume 13 , Issue 1
Avian Research 2022, 13(1): 100005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avrs.2022.100005
Research | Open Access | Issue | Published: 02 February 2022

On the potential of documenting decadal-scale avifaunal change from before-and-after comparisons of museum and observational data across North America

Show Author's Information Fernando Machado-Stredela( ),  Benedictus Freemana,  Daniel Jiménez-Garciab,  Marlon E. Cobosa,  Claudia Nuñez-Penicheta,  Laura Jiméneza,  Ed Kompc,  Utku Perktasa,d,e,  Ali Khalighifara,  Kate Ingenloffa,  Walter Tapondjoua,  Thilina de Silvaa,  Sumudu Fernandoa,  Luis Osorio-Olveraf,  A. Townsend Petersona
Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA
Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, Puebla, Mexico
Information and Telecommunication Technology Center (ITTC), University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA
Department of Biology (Zoology Section - Biogeography Research Lab.), Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara, Turkey
Department of Ornithology, American Museum of Natural History, Central Park West at 79th Street, New York, NY, USA
Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México
Keywords:
Climate change, Time scale, Birds, Turnover, Biodiversity dynamics, Inventory completeness
Cite this article:
Machado-Stredel F, Freeman B, Jiménez-Garcia D, et al. On the potential of documenting decadal-scale avifaunal change from before-and-after comparisons of museum and observational data across North America. Avian Research, 2022, 13(1): 100005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avrs.2022.100005
Download citation
EndNote(RIS)
BibTeX

1265

Views

43

Downloads

Citations

2

Crossref

1

WoS

2

Scopus

0

CSCD

Abstract Full text About this article

Studies of biodiversity dynamics have been cast on either long (systematics) or short (ecology) time scales, leaving a gap in coverage for moderate time scales of decades to centuries. Large-scale biodiversity information resources now available offer opportunities to fill this gap for many parts of the world via detailed, quantitative comparisons of assemblage composition, particularly for regions without rich time series datasets. We explore the possibility that such changes in avifaunas across the United States and Canada before and after the first three decades of marked global change (i.e., prior to 1980 versus after 2010) can be reconstructed and characterized from existing primary biodiversity data. As an illustration of the potential of this methodology for sites even in regions not as well sampled as the United States and Canada, we also explored changes at a single site in Mexico (Chichén-Itzá). We analyzed two large-scale datasets: one summarizing bird records in the United States and Canada before 1980, and one for the same region after 2010. We used probabilistic inventory completeness analyses to identify sites that have avifaunas that have likely been inventoried more or less completely. We prepared detailed comparisons between the two time periods to analyze species showing distributional changes over the time period analyzed. We identified 139 sites on a 0.05° grid that were demonstrably well-inventoried before 1980 in the United States and Canada, of which 108 were also well-inventoried after 2010. Comparing presence/absence patterns between the two time periods for 601 bird species, we found significant spatial autocorrelation in overall avifaunal turnover (species gained and lost), but not in numbers of species lost. We noted potential northward retractions of ranges of several species with high-latitude (boreal) distributions, while other species showed dominant patterns of population loss, either rangewide (e.g., Tympanuchus cupido) or regionally (e.g., Thryomanes bewickii). We developed linear models to explore a suite of potential drivers of species loss at relatively fine-grained resolutions (<6 ​km), finding significant effects of precipitation increase, particularly on the eastern border of the United States and Canada. Our exploration of biotic change in Chichén-Itzá included 265 species and showed intriguing losses from the local avifauna (e.g., Patagioenas speciosa), as well as vagrant and recent invasive species in the Yucatán Peninsula. The present work documents both the potential for and the problems involved in an approach integrating primary biodiversity data across time periods. This method potentially allows researchers to assess intermediate-time-scale biodiversity dynamics that can reveal patterns of change in biodiversity-rich regions that lack extensive time-series information.


menu
Abstract
Full text
Outline
About this article

On the potential of documenting decadal-scale avifaunal change from before-and-after comparisons of museum and observational data across North America

Show Author's information Fernando Machado-Stredela( ), Benedictus Freemana, Daniel Jiménez-Garciab, Marlon E. Cobosa, Claudia Nuñez-Penicheta, Laura Jiméneza, Ed Kompc, Utku Perktasa,d,e, Ali Khalighifara, Kate Ingenloffa, Walter Tapondjoua, Thilina de Silvaa, Sumudu Fernandoa, Luis Osorio-Olveraf, A. Townsend Petersona
Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA
Centro de Agroecología y Ambiente, Instituto de Ciencias, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, Puebla, Mexico
Information and Telecommunication Technology Center (ITTC), University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, USA
Department of Biology (Zoology Section - Biogeography Research Lab.), Faculty of Science, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, Ankara, Turkey
Department of Ornithology, American Museum of Natural History, Central Park West at 79th Street, New York, NY, USA
Departamento de Ecología de la Biodiversidad, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México, México

Abstract

Studies of biodiversity dynamics have been cast on either long (systematics) or short (ecology) time scales, leaving a gap in coverage for moderate time scales of decades to centuries. Large-scale biodiversity information resources now available offer opportunities to fill this gap for many parts of the world via detailed, quantitative comparisons of assemblage composition, particularly for regions without rich time series datasets. We explore the possibility that such changes in avifaunas across the United States and Canada before and after the first three decades of marked global change (i.e., prior to 1980 versus after 2010) can be reconstructed and characterized from existing primary biodiversity data. As an illustration of the potential of this methodology for sites even in regions not as well sampled as the United States and Canada, we also explored changes at a single site in Mexico (Chichén-Itzá). We analyzed two large-scale datasets: one summarizing bird records in the United States and Canada before 1980, and one for the same region after 2010. We used probabilistic inventory completeness analyses to identify sites that have avifaunas that have likely been inventoried more or less completely. We prepared detailed comparisons between the two time periods to analyze species showing distributional changes over the time period analyzed. We identified 139 sites on a 0.05° grid that were demonstrably well-inventoried before 1980 in the United States and Canada, of which 108 were also well-inventoried after 2010. Comparing presence/absence patterns between the two time periods for 601 bird species, we found significant spatial autocorrelation in overall avifaunal turnover (species gained and lost), but not in numbers of species lost. We noted potential northward retractions of ranges of several species with high-latitude (boreal) distributions, while other species showed dominant patterns of population loss, either rangewide (e.g., Tympanuchus cupido) or regionally (e.g., Thryomanes bewickii). We developed linear models to explore a suite of potential drivers of species loss at relatively fine-grained resolutions (<6 ​km), finding significant effects of precipitation increase, particularly on the eastern border of the United States and Canada. Our exploration of biotic change in Chichén-Itzá included 265 species and showed intriguing losses from the local avifauna (e.g., Patagioenas speciosa), as well as vagrant and recent invasive species in the Yucatán Peninsula. The present work documents both the potential for and the problems involved in an approach integrating primary biodiversity data across time periods. This method potentially allows researchers to assess intermediate-time-scale biodiversity dynamics that can reveal patterns of change in biodiversity-rich regions that lack extensive time-series information.

Keywords: Climate change, Time scale, Birds, Turnover, Biodiversity dynamics, Inventory completeness

References(82)

Alderfer, J., Dunn, J.L., 2014. National Geographic Complete Birds of North America, sixth ed. National Geographic Books, Washington DC.
AOU, 1983. Check-list of North American Birds, sixth ed. American Ornithologists’ Union, Washington DC.
AOU, 1998. Check-list of North American Birds, seventh ed. American Ornithologists’ Union, Washington DC.
Bibby, C.J., Burgess, N.D., Hill, D.A., 1992. Bird Census Techniques. Academic Press, London.
BirdLife International. IUCN Red List for birds, 2015. http://www.birdlife.org. (Accessed December 2015).
Bonney, R., Cooper, C.B., Dickinson, J., Kelling, S., Phillips, T., Rosenberg, K.V., et al.Citizen science: a developing tool for expanding science knowledge and scientific literacyBioscience20095997798410.1525/bio.2009.59.11.9

Bonney R, Cooper CB, Dickinson J, Kelling S, Phillips T, Rosenberg KV, et al. Citizen science: a developing tool for expanding science knowledge and scientific literacy. Bioscience. 2009;59:977-984
DOI Google Scholar
Brown, D.J., Ribic, C.A., Donner, D.M., Nelson, M.D., Bocetti, C.I., Deloria-Sheffield, C.M.Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler after successful recoveryJ. Appl. Ecol.20175443944910.1111/1365-2664.12776

Brown DJ, Ribic CA, Donner DM, Nelson MD, Bocetti CI, Deloria-Sheffield CM. Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler after successful recovery. J. Appl. Ecol. 2017;54:439-449
DOI Google Scholar

Cade TJ, Woods CP. Changes in distribution and abundance of the Loggerhead Shrike. Conserv. Biol. 1997;11:21-31
DOI Google Scholar
Cavarzere, V., Silveira, L.F., Tonetti, V.R., Develey, P., Ubaid, F.K., Regalado, L.B., et al.Museum collections indicate bird defaunation in a biodiversity hotspotBiota Neotropica201717e20170404

Cavarzere V, Silveira LF, Tonetti VR, Develey P, Ubaid FK, Regalado LB, et al. Museum collections indicate bird defaunation in a biodiversity hotspot. Biota Neotropica. 2017;17:e20170404
Google Scholar
Chesser, R.T., Billerman, S.M., Burns, K.J., Cicero, C., Dunn, J.L., Kratter, A.W., et al., 2020. Check-list of North American Birds. American Ornithological Society. December 2020. http://checklist.americanornithology.org/taxa.

Collen B, Ram M, Zamin T, McRae L. The tropical biodiversity data gap: addressing disparity in global monitoring. Trop. Conserv. Sci. 2008;1:75-88
DOI Google Scholar
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, L., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2013. Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Colwell, R.K., 1994. EstimateS. University of Connecticut, Storrs, 2016. http://viceroy.eeb.uconn.edu/estimates/.

Colwell RK, Coddington JA. Estimating terrestrial biodiversity through extrapolation. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B . 1994;335:101-118
Google Scholar
Cooper, T.R., 2008. King Rail Conservation Plan, Version 1. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Fort Snelling.

Constable H, Guralnick R, Wieczorek J, Spencer C, Peterson AT. VertNet: a new model for biodiversity data sharing. PLoS Biol. 2010;8:e1000309
DOI Google Scholar

del Lama SN, Moralez-Silva E. Colonization of Brazil by the Cattle Egret (Bubulcus ibis) revealed by mitochondrial DNA. NeoBiota. 2014;21:49-63
DOI Google Scholar

Diniz-Filho JAF, Bini LM. Modelling geographical patterns in species richness using eigenvector-based spatial filters. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2005;14:177-185
DOI Google Scholar

Diniz-Filho JAF, de Sant'Ana CER, Bini LM. An eigenvector method for estimating phylogenetic inertia. Evolution. 1998;52:1247-1262
DOI Google Scholar
Dornelas, M., Antao, L.H., Moyes, F., Bates, A.E., Magurran, A.E., Adam, D., et al.BioTIME: a database of biodiversity time series for the AnthropoceneGlobal Ecol. Biogeogr.20182776078610.1111/geb.12729

Dornelas M, Antao LH, Moyes F, Bates AE, Magurran AE, Adam D, et al. BioTIME: a database of biodiversity time series for the Anthropocene. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2018;27:760-786
DOI Google Scholar
Easterling, D.R., Kunkel, K.E., Arnold, J.R., Knutson, T., LeGrande, A.N., Leung, L.R., et al., 2017. Precipitation change in the United States. In: Wuebbles, D.J., Fahey, D.W., Hibbard, K.A., Dokken, D.J., Stewart, B.C., Maycock, T.K. (Eds.), Climate Science Special Report: a Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Global Change Research Program, Washington.
ESRI, 2016. ArcMap 10.5.1. Esri Inc, Redlands.
Gaiji, S., Chavan, V., Ariño, A.H., Otegui, J., Hobern, D., Sood, R., et al.Content assessment of the primary biodiversity data published through GBIF network: status, challenges and potentialsBiodivers. Inf.2013894172

Gaiji S, Chavan V, Arino AH, Otegui J, Hobern D, Sood R, et al. Content assessment of the primary biodiversity data published through GBIF network: status, challenges and potentials. Biodivers. Inf. 2013;8:94-172
Google Scholar

Grinnell J. The role of the “Accidental”. Auk. 1922;39:373-380
DOI Google Scholar

Higgins PA. Biodiversity loss under existing land use and climate change: an illustration using northern South America. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2007;16:197-204
DOI Google Scholar

Illan JG, Thomas CD, Jones JA, Wong WK, Shirley SM, Betts MG. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in western North American birds. Global Change Biol. 2014;20:3351-3364
DOI Google Scholar
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jarzyna, M.A., Jetz, W.A near half-century of temporal change in different facets of avian diversityGlobal Change Biol.2017232999301110.1111/gcb.13571

Jarzyna MA, Jetz W. A near half-century of temporal change in different facets of avian diversity. Global Change Biol. 2017;23:2999-3011
DOI Google Scholar
Johnston, A., Hochachka, W.M., Strimas-Mackey, M.E., Gutierrez, V.R., Robinson, O.J., Miller, E.T., et al.Analytical guidelines to increase the value of community science data: an example using eBird data to estimate species distributionsDivers. Distrib.2021271265127710.1111/ddi.13271

Johnston A, Hochachka WM, Strimas-Mackey ME, Gutierrez VR, Robinson OJ, Miller ET, et al. Analytical guidelines to increase the value of community science data: an example using eBird data to estimate species distributions. Divers. Distrib. 2021;27:1265-1277
DOI Google Scholar

Kennedy ED, White DW. Interference competition from house Wrens as a factor in the decline of Bewick's Wrens. Conserv. Biol. 1996;10:281-284
DOI Google Scholar
Khalighifar, A., Jiménez, L., Nuñez-Penichet, C., Freeman, B., Ingenloff, K., Jiménez-García, D., et al.Inventory statistics meet big data: complications for estimating numbers of speciesPeerJ20208e887210.7717/peerj.8872

Khalighifar A, Jimenez L, Nunez-Penichet C, Freeman B, Ingenloff K, Jimenez-Garcia D, et al. Inventory statistics meet big data: complications for estimating numbers of species. PeerJ. 2020;8:e8872
DOI Google Scholar

Koenig WD. Synchrony and periodicity of eruptions by boreal birds. Condor. 2001;103:725-735
DOI Google Scholar

Lambert FH, Stine AR, Krakauer NY, Chiang JC. How much will precipitation increase with global warming? Eos. 2008;89:193-194
Google Scholar
Laurance, W.F., Nascimento, H.E.M., Laurance, S.G., Andrade, A., Ribeiro, J.E.L.S., Giraldo, J.P., et al.Rapid decay of tree-community composition in Amazonian forest fragmentsProc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.2006103190101901410.1073/pnas.0609048103

Laurance WF, Nascimento HEM, Laurance SG, Andrade A, Ribeiro JELS, Giraldo JP, et al. Rapid decay of tree-community composition in Amazonian forest fragments. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2006;103:19010-19014
DOI Google Scholar

Levin SA. The problem of pattern and scale in ecology: the Robert H. MacArthur award lecture. Ecology. 1992;73:1943-1967
DOI Google Scholar

Liu H, Gong P, Wang J, Clinton N, Bai Y, Liang S. Annual dynamics of global land cover and its long-term changes from 1982 to 2015. Earth Syst. Sci. Data. 2020;12:1217-1243
DOI Google Scholar
Livneh, B., Bohn, T.J., Pierce, D.W., Munoz-Arriola, F., Nijssen, B., Vose, R., et al.A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the US, and southern Canada 1950–2013Sci. Data2015215004210.1038/sdata.2015.42

Livneh B, Bohn TJ, Pierce DW, Munoz-Arriola F, Nijssen B, Vose R, et al. A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the US, and southern Canada 1950-2013. Sci. Data. 2015;2:150042
DOI Google Scholar

MacKenzie DI, Nichols JD, Lachman GB, Droege S, Royle JA, Langtimm CA. Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology. 2002;83:2248-2255
DOI Google Scholar
McGowan, K.J., Corwin, K., 2008. The Second Atlas of Breeding Birds in New York State. Comstock Publishing Associates, Ithaca.

Mihoub JB, Henle K, Titeux N, Brotons L, Brummitt NA, Schmeller DS. Setting temporal baselines for biodiversity: the limits of available monitoring data for capturing the full impact of anthropogenic pressures. Sci. Rep. 2017;7:41591
DOI Google Scholar

Moritz C, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, Parra JL, White GC, Beissinger SR. Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science. 2008;322:261-264
DOI Google Scholar
Morony, J.J., Bock, W.J., Farrand, J., 1975. Reference List of the Birds of the World. American Museum of Natural History, New York.
Mussmann, S.M., Douglas, M.R., Anthonysamy, W.J.B., Davis, M.A., Simpson, S.A., Louis, W., et al.Genetic rescue, the greater Prairie Chicken and the problem of conservation reliance in the AnthropoceneR. Soc. Open Sci.2017416073610.1098/rsos.160736

Mussmann SM, Douglas MR, Anthonysamy WJB, Davis MA, Simpson SA, Louis W, et al. Genetic rescue, the greater Prairie Chicken and the problem of conservation reliance in the Anthropocene. R. Soc. Open Sci. 2017;4:160736
DOI Google Scholar

Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GA, Kent J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature. 2000;403:853-858
DOI Google Scholar
Parmesan, C., Yohe, G.A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systemsNature2003421374210.1038/nature01286

Parmesan C, Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature. 2003;421:37-42
DOI Google Scholar
Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Descimon, H., et al.Poleward shift of butterfly species' ranges associated with regional warmingNature199939957958310.1038/21181

Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Descimon H, et al. Poleward shift of butterfly species' ranges associated with regional warming. Nature. 1999;399:579-583
DOI Google Scholar
Peters, J.L., 1931. Check-list of Birds of the World, vols. 1–16. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1987

Peters SE, McClennen M. The Paleobiology Database application programming interface. Paleobiology. 2016;42:1-7
DOI Google Scholar

Peterson AT. Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences. Global Change Biol. 2003;9:647-655
DOI Google Scholar

Peterson AT, Slade NA. Extrapolating inventory results into biodiversity estimates and the importance of stopping rules. Divers. Distrib. 1998;4:95-105
DOI Google Scholar

Peterson AT, Navarro-Siguenza AG, Martinez-Meyer E, Cuervo-Robayo AP, Berlanga H, Soberon J. Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: landscape change versus climate drivers. Sci. Adv. 2015;1:e1400071
DOI Google Scholar

Peterson AT, Navarro-Siguenza AG, Martinez-Meyer E. Digital accessible knowledge and well-inventoried sites for birds in Mexico: baseline sites for measuring faunistic change. PeerJ. 2016;4:e2362
DOI Google Scholar

Previdi M, Liepert BG. Interdecadal variability of rainfall on a warming planet. Eos. 2008;89:193-195
Google Scholar
QGIS Development Team, 2016. QGIS Geographic Information System (Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project). http://qgis.osgeo.org.
Reddy, S., Dávalos, L.M.Geographical sampling bias and its implications for conservation priorities in AfricaJ. Biogeogr.2003301719172710.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00946.x

Reddy S, Davalos LM. Geographical sampling bias and its implications for conservation priorities in Africa. J. Biogeogr. 2003;30:1719-1727
DOI Google Scholar

Robbins MB, Nyari AS, Papes M, Benz BW, Barber BR. River-based surveys for assessing riparian bird populations: Cerulean Warbler as a test case. SE. Nat. 2010;9:95-104
DOI Google Scholar
Root, T., 1988a. Atlas of Wintering North American Birds: an Analysis of Christmas Bird Count Data. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Root, T.Environmental factors associated with avian distributional boundariesJ. Biogeogr.19881548950510.2307/2845278

Root T. Environmental factors associated with avian distributional boundaries. J. Biogeogr. 1988b;15:489-505
DOI Google Scholar
Rosenberg, K.V., Dokter, A.M., Blancher, P.J., Sauer, J.R., Smith, A.C., Smith, P.A., et al.Decline of the north American avifaunaScience201936612012410.1126/science.aaw1313

Rosenberg KV, Dokter AM, Blancher PJ, Sauer JR, Smith AC, Smith PA, et al. Decline of the north American avifauna. Science. 2019;366:120-124
DOI Google Scholar
Rowe, K.C., Rowe, K.M.C., Tingley, M.W., Koo, M.S., Patton, J.L., Conroy, C.J., et al.Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane CaliforniaP. Roc. Soc. Lond. B Bio.201428220141857

Rowe KC, Rowe KMC, Tingley MW, Koo MS, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, et al. Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California. P. Roc. Soc. Lond. B Bio. 2014;282:20141857
Google Scholar
Sauer, J.R., Niven, D.K., Hines, J.E., Ziolkowski Jr., D.J., Pardieck, K.L., Fallon, J.E., et al., 2017a. The North American Breeding Bird Survey, Results and Analysis 1966–2015, Version 2.07. Patuxent Wildlife Research Center Laurel, Laurel.
Sauer, J.R., Pardieck, K.L., , Smith, A.C., Hudson, M.-A.R., Rodriguez, V., et al.The first 50 years of the North American breeding bird surveyCondor201711957659310.1650/CONDOR-17-83.1

Sauer JR, Pardieck KL, Ziolkowski DJ Jr, Smith AC, Hudson M-AR, Rodriguez V, et al. The first 50 years of the North American breeding bird survey. Condor. 2017b;119:576-593
DOI Google Scholar

Servanty S, Converse SJ, Bailey LL. Demography of a reintroduced population: moving toward management models for an endangered species, the Whooping Crane. Ecol. Appl. 2014;24:927-937
DOI Google Scholar
Sibley, C.G., Monroe, B.L.J., 1990. Distribution and Taxonomy of Birds of the World. Yale University Press, New Haven.

Smith JL. Decline of the Bewick's wren. Redstart. 1980;47:77-82
Google Scholar

Soininen J. Species turnover along abiotic and biotic gradients: patterns in space equal patterns in time? Bioscience. 2010;60:433-439
DOI Google Scholar

Sousa-Baena MS, Garcia LC, Peterson AT. Completeness of digital accessible knowledge of the plants of Brazil and priorities for survey and inventory. Divers. Distrib. 2013;20:369-381
Google Scholar

Spooner FEB, Pearson RG, Freeman R. Rapid warming is associated with population decline among terrestrial birds and mammals globally. Global Change Biol. 2018;24:4521-4531
DOI Google Scholar
Strimas-Mackey, M., Miller, E., Hochachka, W., 2018. Auk: eBird Data Extraction and Processing with AWK. R Package Version 0.3.0. https://cornelllabofornithology.github.io/auk/.

Sullivan BL, Wood CL, Iliff MJ, Bonney RE, Fink D, Kelling S. eBird: a citizen-based bird observation network in the biological sciences. Biol. Conserv. 2009;142:2282-2292
DOI Google Scholar
Sullivan, B.L., Aycrigg, J.L., Barry, J.H., Bonney, R.E., Bruns, N., Cooper, C.B., et al.The eBird enterprise: an integrated approach to development and application of citizen scienceBiol. Conserv.2014169314010.1016/j.biocon.2013.11.003

Sullivan BL, Aycrigg JL, Barry JH, Bonney RE, Bruns N, Cooper CB, et al. The eBird enterprise: an integrated approach to development and application of citizen science. Biol. Conserv. 2014;169:31-40
DOI Google Scholar

Swann ALS, Fung IY, Chiang JCH. Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2012;109:712-716
DOI Google Scholar

Tingley MW, Beissinger SR. Detecting range shifts from historical species occurrences: new perspectives on old data. Trends Ecol. Evol. 2009;24:625-633
DOI Google Scholar

Tingley MW, Beissinger SR. Cryptic loss of montane avian richness and high community turnover over 100 years. Ecology. 2013;94:598-609
DOI Google Scholar

Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2009;106:19637-19643
DOI Google Scholar

Tingley MW, Koo MS, Moritz C, Rush AC, Beissinger SR. The push and pull of climate change causes heterogeneous shifts in avian elevational ranges. Global Change Biol. 2012;18:3279-3290
DOI Google Scholar

Vorontsova MS, Clayton D, Simon BK. Grassroots e-floras in the Poaceae: growing GrassBase and GrassWorld. PhytoKeys. 2015;48:73-84
DOI Google Scholar

Webb SD. Ecogeography and the great American interchange. Paleobiology. 1991;17:266-280
DOI Google Scholar
Wehtje, W.The range expansion of the great-tailed Grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus Gmelin) in north America since 1880J. Biogeogr.2003301593160710.1046/j.1365-2699.2003.00970.x

Wehtje W. The range expansion of the great-tailed Grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus Gmelin) in north America since 1880. J. Biogeogr. 2003;30:1593-1607
DOI Google Scholar

Wentz FJ, Ricciardulli L, Hilburn K, Mears C. How much more rain will global warming bring? Science. 2007;317:233-235
DOI Google Scholar
Yesson, C., Brewer, P.W., Sutton, T., Caithness, N., Pahwa, J.S., Burgess, M., et al.How global is the global biodiversity information facility?PLoS One20072e112410.1371/journal.pone.0001124

Yesson C, Brewer PW, Sutton T, Caithness N, Pahwa JS, Burgess M, et al. How global is the global biodiversity information facility? PLoS One. 2007;2:e1124
DOI Google Scholar
Yunick, R.P.An assessment of the irruptive status of the Boreal Chickadee in New York StateJ. Field Ornithol.1984553137

Yunick RP. An assessment of the irruptive status of the Boreal Chickadee in New York State. J. Field Ornithol. 1984;55:31-37
Google Scholar
Publication history
Copyright
Acknowledgements
Rights and permissions

Publication history

Received: 28 April 2021
Accepted: 26 November 2021
Published: 02 February 2022
Issue date: March 2022

Copyright

© 2022 The Authors.

Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements

We thank the remaining members of the KU Ecological Niche Modeling Group for their support and assistance in various phases of this project. In particular, we thank Jorge Soberón and Mark Robbins for wisdom and guidance in aspects of the analyses reported herein. FMS wants to express his gratitude to Pietro de Mello and the WOG group for their support throughout this project.

Rights and permissions

This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Return